1. Think back to the point in time when the Trump Administration was asking firms to participate in Operation Warp Speed. The goal was to develop, test and produce a vaccine to protect against Covid-19.
In our final case study the first questions is to advise firms how to manage risk and uncertainty. These are two different things in economics and the response to each is different. Use this discussion to make sure you see the difference.
In this discussion I want to really understand how risk and uncertainty differ. I have put some helpful information in the Discussion Preparation.
Now to help with this distinction, I want to repeat the context given in the discussion.
Risk describes a situation in which we do not know the outcome, but we do know all the possible outcomes and can assign probabilities to each of these outcomes happening. Risked can be managed. Knowing the potential costs of errors, allows managers to hedge and/and or insure against costly outcomes. For example, ever since you quarterback had shoulder surgery, he only connects with the receiver one out of every four passes. You know that your kicker can score 80% of the time when your team is within 25 yards of the goal. You can make the calculation. Every time you are within 25 years of the goal, an attempted pass will get .25*6 points or the point payoff is 1.5 points. Versus the point payoff for a kick is .80*3 or the point payoff is 2.4 points. You can make a plan for the game.
Uncertainty is the situation in which we do not know all the possible outcomes and, therefore, can’t reasonably assign probability to outcomes. Uncertainty is the unknown factor(s) in decision making for managers. Per the Warfighting Manual of the U.S, Marines, Because we can never eliminate uncertainty, we must learn to fight (manage) effectively despite it. We do this by deploying simple, flexible plans; planning for likely contingencies; developing standing operating procedures; and fostering initiatives among subordinates.” (See reference in the Welcome on this week’s page.) Two entirely new teams have just joined the league. They will play each other. Someone will win, but who? (Beware of false probability, each team does not necessarily have an even chance of a win)
2.There are many characteristics that board of directors have. Many board of directors are also CEOs of major companies. For this fact alone, the main two characteristics that I look for in board of directors are levelheadedness (Ethics) and the ability to speak up. I say this because being able to do the right thing for the right reason is very important to me. Secondly, if the member does not speak up or say what is truly on his/her heart and mind bad decisions can be made. Board of directors and rules of whom can be on the board and in what capacity have changed a lot over the past decade. Board of directors no longer accept poor performance from CEO’s. This was shown with the removal of CEO’s from Citigroup, Pfizer, Groupon, J.C. Penny and many others in the past several years (Brigham,
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